TLDR: Nicholas Carlini discusses the future potential of large language models (LLMs), emphasizing uncertainty about their capabilities. He suggests LLMs could either surpass human experts or plateau, advocating for a mindset of humility and open-mindedness. Current advancements in LLMs show rapid improvement, yet future limitations are possible due to factors like funding and training data. Carlini argues that dismissing potential growth or limits is a mistake, urging readers to keep wide margins of error in their predictions about AI's future.
https://nicholas.carlini.com/writing/2025/thoughts-on-future-ai.html