AI take-off is slow due to inefficiencies in less productive sectors (Baumol-Bowen cost disease), human bottlenecks affecting adoption and productivity, challenges in human-AI collaboration (O-Ring model), unclear economic impacts of AI, the historical diffusion of technologies, and a stable GDP growth pattern. Despite optimism about AI capabilities, significant barriers remain that hinder rapid transformation. Predictions suggest AI could increase growth rates modestly over time without drastic changes in daily experiences for most people.
Why I Think AI Take-off Is Relatively Slow
